PhD in Environmental Sciences

Presenter: Ryan Guild

Title of the Thesis: "Nesting in a Changing Climate: Investigating Climate-Driven Risks, Habitat Change, and Management Strategies for Piping Plovers"

"Coastal nesting birds face intensifying threats from climate and human-induced stressors that transform habitats and nesting conditions far beyond historical precedents. One such species is the Atlantic Coast piping plover (PIPL; Charadrius melodus melodus), among North America’s most endangered shorebird, which nests in dynamic, exposed shoreline environments where multiple stressors can severely undermine productivity and survival. In this thesis, I investigate how climate-related stressors, habitat change, and management strategies shape nesting outcomes for a key sub-unit of the Eastern Canadian PIPL population on Prince Edward Island (PEI). Through a comprehensive review of climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems, I first demonstrate how factors such as sea-level rise, storms, warming temperatures, and changes in freshwater availability are reshaping habitat conditions for coastal biota. With this knowledge, I develop a spatiotemporal model to identify key environmental correlates of PIPL nesting success on PEI, including positive effects of maximum temperature (to date), diminished success with later nesting, and lower hatchability near high-recreation areas. A case study of habitat changes following a record-setting fall hurricane – informed by satellite imagery and geospatial analyses – revealed that although the storm created new nesting habitat, PIPL largely returned to their pre-existing nesting areas in the first post-storm season. Consequently, nest failures from flooding increased, yet overall productivity remained high – largely thanks to a single, remote nesting site that continues to subsidise otherwise low productivity rates on the island. A systematic review of management strategies across the Atlantic Coast is then undertaken, which reveals few targeted measures to address threats from nest flooding or severe weather events, despite their growing significance. Finally, I evaluate the roles of tidal, lunar, and wind dynamics in nest flooding and propose a proof-of-concept forecasting tool that integrates nest coordinates, topographical data, and tidal information to alert managers to imminent flood risks. Overall, this research advances knowledge of both environmental and anthropogenic influences on PIPL breeding dynamics and highlights key management interventions that may be necessary to support productivity and population recovery on PEI amid a rapidly changing coastal environment."

April 22, 2025, 1:00 pm via web conferencing

If you wish to attend the public presentation, please contact the Graduate Studies Coordinator at gsc@upei.ca to receive the link.

Everyone is welcome.